Appendix C: Conformity Determination.


As adopted.


Air Quality Conformity Determination


Between


The 2040 Comprehensive Regional Plan Update Companion Amendment #4 and The Fiscal Year 2018 to 2021 Transportation Improvement Program as adopted and

The Indiana State Implementation Plan for Air Quality


May 18, 2017


Northwestern Indiana Regional Planning Commission Portage, Indiana


www.nirpc.org



Table of Contents

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Purpose 1

Applicability 1

Priority 1

Consultation 2

Content of the 2040 Comprehensive Regional Plan 5

Table 1. 2040 Comprehensive Regional Plan Capacity Expansion Projects 5

Relationship of the Transportation Plan and TIP Conformity to the NEPA Process 8

Fiscal Constraints for the Transportation Plan and Transportation Improvement Program 8

Criteria and Procedures for the Conformity Determination 9

Latest Planning Assumptions 9

Table 2. Socioeconomic Totals 10

Table 3. Vehicle-Miles of Travel 10

Latest Emissions Model 11

TCM Implementation 11

Consistency with Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets in the State Implementation Plan 11

Emission Reductions in Areas Without Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets 11

Procedures for Determining Regional Transportation-Related Emissions 12

Regional Transportation-Related Emissions Results 12

Table 4. Regional Emissions Analysis Results 13

Conclusion 13

Appendix A-1: NIRPC Air Quality Public Education Project and Emissions Reductions 14


Purpose


The purpose of this report is to document compliance with section 176(c) of the Clean Air Act as amended (CAAA), and the related requirements of the Final Transportation Conformity Rule (40 CFR Part 51 and 40 CFR Part 93). The air quality conformity determination establishes the compatibility between the state implementation plan, the regional transportation plan and transportation improvement program. The transportation plan includes the region's guide for transportation system development over a minimum twenty­ year period. The transportation improvement program (TIP) includes the region's choices for Federal spending on expansion and preservation of the transportation system over a four to five year period. The State Implementation Plan {SIP) includes strategies for attainment and maintenance of the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS). The conformity determination is based on a regional emissions analysis that demonstrates compatibility among these three planning documents. The regional emissions analysis uses the region's transportation network model and the USEPA's MOVES 2014a emissions simulator to quantify the emissions from all vehicles on the future transportation system. For Lake and Porter Counties, annual emissions of nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds must not exceed Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets as established in the State Implementation Plan. The system that was analyzed includes, regardless offunding sources, all regionally significant capacity expansion projects in the Lake, Porter and LaPorte County area, all significant projects in northeastern Illinois, and a portion of Newton and Jasper Counties in order to satisfy the logical termini consistency with the NEPA process 23 CFR 771.


Applicability


Action Applicability

This conformity determination is required for: adoption, acceptance, approval or support of the Regional Transportation Plan (2040 Comprehensive Regional Plan as updated and amended) and the to be adopted Transportation Improvement Program {Fiscal Year 2018 to 2021 Transportation Improvement Program) developed pursuant to 23 CFR Part 450 and 49 CFR Part 613.


Geographic Applicability

This conformity determination is required in the ozone non-attainment area, including the Lake/Porter County non-attainment area with respect to the Summer day mobile-source emissions of VOCs and NOx. Lake and Porter Counties are designated as non-attainment of the 1997 National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) for "8-hour" ozone. Lake and Porter Counties are designated nonattainment for the 2008 Ozone NAAQS, but since no approved SIP exists for this NAAQS, conformity is only required for the 1997 Ozone SIP. This analysis examines parts of LaPorte, Newton and Jasper Counties in order to be consistent with the logical termini requirement for the NEPA process, even though these counties are in attainment of the NAAQS.


This conformity determination is based on the requirement of 40 CFR 93.118 (Federal Transportation Conformity Rule) for the regional emissions analysis to indicate compliance with the emissions budgets established in the State Implementation Plan for VOC and NOx emissions in Lake and Porter Counties. The regional transportation plan and transportation improvement program must not result in Summer day emissions of VOC and NOx in 2020, 2025, 2030, 2035 and 2040 in excess of the applicable budgets. 2045 is added as an analysis year in order to satisfy the desires of the lnteragency Consultation Group on Air Quality.


Priority


Transportation Control Measures (TCM) in the State Implementation Plan must be given funding priority in the FHWNFTA approval of any action with air quality consequences . The State Implementation Plan for Lake and Porter Counties includes no transportation control measures. This conformity determination is not required

image

Northwes tern Ind iana Regional Planning Commission Air Qualltv Conformity Determination


to demonstrate priority for TCMs.


Consultation


This conformity determination has been conducted with the involvement of the United States Department of Transportation (USDOT) through the Federal Highway Administration Indiana Division (FHWA) and Federal Transit Administration Region 5 (FTA), United States Environmental Protection Agency Region 5 (USEPA), Indiana Department of Transportation (INDOT), Indiana Department of Environmental Management (IDEM), and Northwestern Indiana Regional Planning Commission (NIRPC).


The consultation process included the issues and procedures that are listed in 40 .CFR 93.105 of the final conformity rule and the August 2007 lnteragency Consultation Guidance.


An lnteragency Consultation Group (ICG) meeting was conducted on January 30, 2017 at 1:00 PM Central Time by teleconference . The meeting was attended by Scott Weber , Kathy Luther, and James Winters of NIRPC; Lisa Shrader, Jay Mitchell, and Frank Baukert of INDOT; Joyce Newland of FHWA, Tony Maietta of USEPA, and Shawn Seals of IDEM. Ross Patronsky from the Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning (CMAP) and John Parsons and Nicole Barker from the Northern Indiana Commuter Transportation (NICTD) also joined the call. Scott Weber opened the call and began by offering a timeline of NIRPC's expected action to adopt the Fiscal Year 2018 to 2021 Transportation Improvement Program (TIP), anticipated in May 2017. This means that the Air Quality Conformity Determination Analysis covering all non-exempt, regionally significant projects will have to be made available to Public Comment from between March 13, 2017 to April 13, 2017 .


Scott Weber then updated the ICG on the latest conformity requirements for Lake and Porter Counties in Indiana, that they are non-attainment for the 2008 Ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS). This means that it must be shown using the latest available Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets (MVEB) found in the State Implementation Plan (SIP) that emissions caused by these certain projects in the FY 2018 to 2021 TIP result in emissions at or below the ozone precursor emissions in the MVEB.


Scott Weber then updated participants about the non-exempt regionally significant projects expected to be included in the FY 2018 to 2021 TIP. John Parsons and Nicole Barker gave an update on the NICTD West Lake Corridor and Double Tracking projects, which would improve commuter rail service between Northwest Indiana and Chicago . John and Nicole confirmed that the STOPS model projects ridership on the West Lake Corridor at 7,000 by the year 2040 and nearly 27,000 on the entire system, including the West Lake Corridor plus the existing Double Tracked system by 2040, representing an increase of approximately 12,000 riders from the current average weekday boardings on the NICTD service. Scott then informed the group that when modeling the West Lake Corridor and Double Tracking projects using NIRPC's model, he was not observing this high a ridership in 2040. The group then decided that it would be best for NIRPC to run 2 scenarios for each model year: 1 using the NIRPC model parameters as is for the 2 projects, and 1 replicating the ridership in the STOPS Model. Both projects would first appear as open to traffic by 2025, missing the January 1, 2020 open to traffic cutoff to be modeled in 2020 .


Joyce Newland then brought up the issue of what to do with the IIliana Corridor. Jay Mitchell reported that officially INDOT is prepared to advance work on the project as soon as Illinois resumes support, and that INDOT has no action to delay or withdraw a project. Scott Weber and Kathy Luther at NIRPC stated that it may be unwise for NIRPC to expose a document to public comment showing that the !Iliana Corridor would be open to traffic in 2020 . Ross Patronsky at CMAP reported that, on the recommendation of the FHWA Chicago Metro Office, the !Iliana Corridor completion year was moved back from 2018 . The year 2040 was chosen for CMAP's conformity purposes. The group requested that Jay Mitchell ask higher-ups at INDOT what their response to pushing back the !Iliana Corridor to a later year would be. In the meantime,


2

image

Northwestern Indiana RegionalPl:innlng Commission Air Quality Conformity Detcm1inatfon


the group decided that Scott should send a 2020 model run into INDOT for air quality analysis that excludes the !Iliana to see if it would cause a violation.


Scott Weber then updated the ICG that he checked with the carried over projects from the previous Air Quality Conformity Determination Analysis to make sure that they were still on track for their proposed open to traffic years. Scott reported that 2 projects slated for 2020 have already been opened to traffic : 61st Ave in Hobart and the first phase of Mississippi St in Merrillville. The phasing on the Schererville Kennedy Ave project had to be divided up into 2 phases. Junction Ave to US-30 would still be slotted for 2025, but that the phase between Oak St and Junction Ave would be rescheduled to open to traffic by 2030. The SR-249 Port of Indiana Burns Harbor second access bridge project would be pushed back from 2020 to 2025 because the anticipated open to traffic date would be later in the year 2020.


The ICG agreed that the Latest Planning Assumptions still apply because NIRPC has not undertaken more recent population or employment forecasts and is still operating under the 2040 Comprehensive Regional Plan Update Companion as adopted in May 2015 .


Scott Weber and Frank Baukert confirmed that the expected timeline for modeling the non-exempt, regionally significant projects that need to be modeled for the Air Quality Conformity Determination Analysis would be completed by the first week of March 2017 . This means that Scott agrees to send Frank the network model results by February 14, and that Frank will be able to turn those network model results into air quality emissions results by March 3, 2017 .


On February 3, 2017, Scott Weber of NIRPC, John Parsons and Nicole Barker of NICTD, and the consultant team of Kim Slaughter and Vijay Mahal of HOR, Inc., held a teleconference call to discuss NICTD's request that the Air Quality Conformity Determination include one consistent ridership scenario with the STOPS Model serving as the basis for the modeled ridership, and then the NIRPC network model being calibrated to match this ridership forecast in order to show resulting auto and truck vehicle flows. All participants on the call agreed that this was a desirable and achievable task. Scott Weber then calibrated the NIRPC network model in the years 2025 and later to reflect the STOPS model showing approximately 27,000 riders on the NICTD system in 2040 .


On February 7, 2017, Scott Weber sent the lnteragency Consultation Group (ICG) an update that he had spoken with the Northern Indiana Commuter Transportation District (NICTD) and their consultant team about using one consistent ridership forecast and that he heard from Frank Baukert and Jay Mitchell at INDOT that removing the !Iliana Corridor project from the 2020 network would not result in emissions exceeding the 2020 Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets (MVEB). Hearing no objections, the ICG decided to allow one consistent NICTD ridership forecast scenario and remove the !Iliana Corridor from the 2020 network (but keep it in later years).


On March 9, 2017 , an lnteragency Consultation Group (!CG) teleconference call was held to review the draft Air Quality Conformity Determination Analys is. A project to review, INDOT DES # 1700406 to modify the approach on 1-80/94 Westbound to its interchange with 1-65, was added to the agenda on March 8, 2017 . Amanda Pollard, Stephen Sostaric, Scott Weber, and James Winters of NIRPC; Frank Baukert, Jay Mitchell, and Stephan Summers of INDOT; Shawn Seals of IDEM; Joyce Newland of FHWA; Susan Weber of FTA; Tony Maietta of USEPA; Ross Patronsky of CMAP; and Nicole Barker of NICTD joined the call. Stephan Summers presented INDOT DES # 1700406, and the group decided there was not enough information at the time to determine whether or not the project is exempt from Conformity. It was decided Scott Weber would provide traffic information from the NIRPC Travel Demand Model after the call to help the ICG determine whether or not the project would be exempt from Conformity . The group decided that Scott Weber needs to reach out to Michael Ready at INDOT in order to verify if in fact the southern terminus of the 1-65 Added Travel Lanes Project DES # 1400349 is in fact SR-10, or if it is not that far south. Finally, the group also decided that the llliana Corridor should be shown as first open to traffic in 2040 to agree


3



with the Illinois Department of Transportation and CMAP, not in 2025 as shown in the draft Conformity Determination Analysis document. For these reasons, a new ICG call with an updated draft would need to be scheduled soon, but NIRPC staff repeated that this would not ultimately impact the anticipated timeline to adopt the FY 2018-2021 Transportation Improvement Program in May 2017.


Scott Weber sent an email out to the ICG on March 9, 2017 with traffic metrics from the NIRPC Travel Model characterizing INDOT DES # 1700406 before and after the interchange modification. Scott Weber heard from Michael Ready that the 1-65 Added Travel Lanes Project DES # 1400349 is SR-2 . Joyce Newland decided with ICG approval on March 13, 2017 that the project is exempt from Conformity, but that it is still appropriate to include in the Network Model.


The lnteragency Consultation Group (ICG) on Air Quality held a teleconference on March 21, 2017. Amanda Pollard and Scott Weber from NIRPC; Frank Baukert, Jay Mitchell, Michael Ready, Lisa Shrader, and Stephan Summers from INDOT; Joyce Newland from FHWA; Susan Weber from FTA; and Tony Maietta from USEPA joined the call. The group discussed the latest draft of the Air Quality Conformity Determination Analysis document. Joyce Newland commented that additions should be made to the Consultation section to reflect that the 1-65 Added Travel Lanes project southern terminus was confirmed with Michael Ready at INDOT. The group agreed to make this change. Joyce Newland commented in Table 1 for DES # 1400585 that the project agency should be changed from INDOT to East Chicago, and the road should be changed from SR-912 to Cline Ave. The group agreed with this change. Scott Weber commented that he would get any missing DES numbers if possible. Tony Maietta said that it would be helpful if more information is written about the Air Quality Public Education CMAQ-funded project used to claim offset emissions for exceeding the 2020 budget. Also, Tony Maietta said it would be helpful if Table 4 showed the quantified emissions reductions from the project. The ICG agreed to both of these changes. The ICG agreed to the timetable of next steps. Joyce Newland asked if NIRPC still plans to amend the FY 2016 to 2019 TIP to include the 1-80/94 Interchange Modification project with 1-65 (DES # 1700406), and Scott Weber said NIRPC intends to do so in April. Stephan Summers and Lisa Shrader confirmed an April amendment is ok with INDOT. Scott Weber ended the call by stating that he would email out a revised copy for the ICG to look over before posting it on the NIRPC website and releasing it for public comment. The ICG agreed that to be consistent with NIRPC's Public Participation Plan that the end date should be adjusted to be 30 days after the posting date even though strictly speaking not being in a Severe Non­ attainment area would allow the 30 day public comment period to be reduced.


On March 21, 2017 , Amanda Pollard and Scott Weber confirmed with Merrillville that the 101st Avenue Added Travel Lanes project between SR-53 and Mississippi St is not being funded with MPO-administered funds, so there would be no DES number. NIRPC also confirmed with James Winters that no NICTD DES numbers are available as of this printing, but that none would be required in time to satisfy the rest of the public comment period. No other projects with missing DES numbers had received DES numbers as of this printing.


Public consultation


In compliance with the adopted NIRPC Public Participation Plan, an opportunity for public comment on the proposed conformity determination has been provided. A media release was issued on March 14, 2017 that established a comment period extending from March 14, 2017 to April 21 , 2017, with the conformity determination being available for 30 days between March 21, 2017 and April 21, 2017 . This proposed conformity determination is available to the public for review at the NIRPC offices, 6100 Southport Road, Portage and on the web at www.nirpc.org. No comments were received specific to the Air Quality Conformity Determination.


4


Content of the Transportation Plan


The transportation plan specifically describes the transportation system envisioned for the following horizon years: 2020, 2025, 2030, and 2040. An additional horizon year of 2045 was agreed to by the ICG. These horizon years meet the USEPA's requirements of 40 CFR 93.106 (a)(1) of the conformity rule.


The 2040 Comprehensive Regional Plan quantifies and documents the demographic and employment factors influencing expected transportation demand. The future levels of population, households and employment imply the magnitude of development envisioned for each traffic analysis zone. These forecasts are based on the 2040 Growth and Revitalization Vision adopted by NIRPC on October 28, 2010. The NIRPC 2040 Comprehensive Regional Plan was formally adopted on June 23, 2011 and updated on May 21, 2015. This conformity determination applies adjustments from the 2010 Census to the forecasts, a directive agreed to by the ICG.


The highway and transit systems are described in terms of the regionally significant additions or modifications to the existing transportation network, which the transportation plan envisions to be operational in the analysis years. The capacity-expansion projects in the 2040 Regional Transportation Plan are listed on Table 1.


Additions and modifications to the highway network are sufficiently identified to indicate intersections with existing regionally significant facilities, and to determine their effect on route options between transportation analysis zones. Each added or modified highway segment is sufficiently identified in terms of its design concept and design scope to allow modeling of travel times under various traffic volumes, consistent with the modeling methods for area-wide transportation analysis in use by NIRPC. The NIRPC transportation model includes network links representing road segments for all collector and higher functional classifications, with nodes representing all significant intersections.


Transit facilities, equipment, and services envisioned for the future are identified in terms of design concept. The design scope and operating policies for these transit projects have been assumed for the regional emissions analysis, based on local transit services. The NIRPC transportation model includes a mode choice model, and the transportation model is used to estimate transit ridership from the implementation of future transit facilities, equipment and services. Table 1 lists the projects, beginning with projects proposed for completion since 2010.


Table 1. 2040 Comprehensive Regional Plan as Update and FY 2018 to 2021 Transportation Improvement Program Capacity Expansion Projects in the Regional Emissions Analysis


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2020 Network (includes the following projects)


ID 243 DES

1400349

Agency Road From To

INDOT 1-65

US-231 SR-2

Completion before Concept

Scope

Model Representation

2020

Interstate Highway Added Travel Lanes

Add 1 NB & 1 SB travel lane

ID

Agency

East Chicago

Completion before

2020

244

Road

Cline Avenue

Concept

Other Expressway

DES

From

Riley Rd Interchange

Scope

New Construction


1400585


To


0.6 miles West of Michigan


Model Representation

New links, 2 travel lanes in each direction, other expressway attributes, $2.50 tollbooth

Avenue lnterchanqe



5


image


image


ID 234 DES

1172430

Agency Road From To

INDOT 1-65

US-30 US-231

Completion before Concept

Scope

Model Reoresentation

2020

Interstate Highway Added Travel Lanes

Add 1 NB & 1 SB travel lane

ID

Agency

INDOT

Completion before


2020

250

Road

US-41

Concept

Principal Arterial Highway

DES

From

93'" Ave

Scope

Added Center Turn Lane

1383695

To

US-231

Model Representation

Increase Capacity by 10%

ID 235a

Agency Road

Lake County 45111 Avenue

Completion before Concept


2020

Minor Arterial Street

DES

From

Whitcomb Street

Scope

Added Center Turn Lane

9980080

To

Grant Street

Model Representation

Increase Capacitv by 10%

ID

Agency

Munster

Completion before

2020

217

Road

45"' Avenue

Concept

Minor Arterial Street

DES

From

At Calumet Avenue

Scope

Intersection Realignment

0710056

To

Model Representation

Reconfigure intersection links

ID

Agency

Gary Public Transp. Corp.

Completion before

2020

249

Service

Livable Broadway

Concept

Enhanced Fixed Route Bus Service

DES

From

Gary Metro Center

Scope

Added Fixed Route Transit Service

1600632

To

Crown Point

Model Representation

Add Transit Line on Road Links



image

image

image

image

image

image

2025 Network (includes the 2020 network, plus the following projects)


ID 239

Agency Road

INDOT SR-249

Completion before Concept

2025

Other Principal Arterial Bridge

DES

From

US-12

Scope

Added Travel Lanes on New Bridge

1600500

To

Port of Indiana - BH

Model Represenlation

Add 2 NB ·& 2 SB travel lanes on new bridge

ID

Agency

NICTD

Completion before

2025

251

Service

South Shore Line

Concept

Double Track where not already 2 parallel tracks

From

Tennessee St

Scope

Added Second Parallel Track where needed

To Michigan Blvd Model Representation Calibrate soeed and headwav to match STOPS ridership

ID

Agency

NICTD

Completion before

2025

252

Service

West Lake Corridor

Concept

New Commuter Rail Service

From

Hammond Gateway

Scope

Added Commuter Rail Line and Service

To

Main St - Munster/Over

Model Representation

Add 1 NB (WB} and 1SB (EB) Track and calibrate ridershio

ID


240

Agency


Road

Hammond Gostlin/Sheffield/Chica go

Completion before


Concept

2025


Minor Arterial Street

DES

From

Illinois State Line

Scope

Added Travel Lanes

1500221

To

US-41

Model Reoresenlation

Add 1 travellane in each direction


image

6


image



ID 235b DES

9980080

Agency Road From To

Lake County 45"' Avenue Colfax Street Whitcomb Slreel

Completion before Concept

Scope

Model Representation

2025

Minor Arterial Street Added Center Turn Lane Increase Capacity by 10%

ID

Agency

Merrillville

Completion before

2025

105b

Road

Mississippi Street

Concept

Minor Arterial Street

DES

From

93ni Ave

Scope

Added Travel Lanes

1006787

To

101st Ave

Model Representation

Add 1 travel lane in each direction


ID


Agency


Merrillville


Completion before


2025

214

Road

101•• Avenue

Concept

Minor Arterial Highway

From

SR-53

Scope

Added Travel Lanes

To

Mississipoi Streel

Model Representation

Add 1 travel lane in each direction


ID


Agency


Schererville


Completion before


2025

96a

Road

Kennedy Avenue

Concept

Minor Arterial Street

DES

From

Junction Ave

Scope

Added Travel Lanes

1173760

To

US-30

Model Representation

Add 1 travel lane in each direction

ID

218

Agency Road

St. John 93rd Avenue

Completion before Concept

2025

Minor Arterial Street

From

White Oak Avenue

Scope

Added Center Turn Lane

To

US-41

Model Representation

Increase caoacitv by 10%



image

image

image

image

image

image

2030 Network (includes the 2025 network, plus the following projects)


ID 86

Agency Road

From

Munster Main Street

Burnham Avenue

Completion before Concept

Scope

2030

Minor Arterial Street

New Construction and added travel lanes


To


Calumet Avenue


Model Representation

New links, 2 travel lanes in each direction, Minor Arterial attributes, add 1 lane I direction in existinq seoment

ID

Agency

Schererville

Completion before

2030

96b

Road

Kennedy Avenue

Concept

Minor Arterial Street

DES

From

Oak St

Scope

Added Travel Lanes

1382603

To

Junction Ave

Model Representation

Add 1 travel lane in each direction

ID

Agency

Valparaiso

Completion before

2030

214

Road

Vale Park Road East

Concept

Minor Arterial Street

From

Calumet Avenue

Scope

Added Travel Lanes

To

Silhavy Road

Model Representation

Add 1 travel lane i n each direction



7


image


image


ID

237

Agency Porter County

Road Willowcreek Road From CR-700N

Completion before

Concept Scope


image

To

CR-100S

Model Representation

2030

Minor Arterial Highway New Construction

New links, 2 travel lanes in each direction, Minor Arterial allributes

2040 Network (includes the 2030 network, plus the following projects)


ID

Agency

INDOT/IDOT

Completion before

2025

233

Road

IIliana

Concept

Limited access toll road

DES

1006456

From

To

1-65

1-55 (I l

Scope

Model Representation

New facility

New 4-lane limited access toll road,$0,11 oer mHe


ID

Agency

Valparaiso

Completion before

2040

238

Road

Division Road

Concept

Minor Arterial Street

From

To

SR-2

US-30

Scope

Model Representation

Added Travel Lanes

Add 1 travel lane in each direction


The NIRPC transportation modeling process does not include a land use model. The socioeconomic data for the traffic analysis zones reflect the 2040 Growth and Revitalization Vision for northwestern Indiana.


Relationship of Transportation Plan and TIP Conformity with the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) Process


The degree of specificity required in the transportation plan and the specific travel network assumed for air quality modeling do not preclude the consideration of alternatives in the NEPA process, including environmental assessment and preparation of environmental impact statements, or other project development studies. Should the NEPA process result in a project with design concept and scope significantly different from that in the transportation plan or transportation improvement program, the project must meet the tests for total annual system emissions equal to or below the level of the 2002 emissions or the applicable budgets for the analysis years , and provide for TCM priority, if applicable, before NEPA process completion.


During the Congestion Management Process (CMP) and other analyses for the capacity expansion projects in the 2040 Regional Transportation Plan, options other than the assumed design concept and design scope must be considered.


Fiscal Constraints for the Transportation Plan and TIP


NIRPC has reviewed all of the projects in the 2040 Comprehensive Regional Plan as updated to determine through project sponsor interviews and the Transportation Policy Committee that the projects meet requirements for fiscal constraint. INDOT has submitted under separate cover a document that describes how the proposed Statewide Transportation Improvement Program (STIP), including those projects inihe FY 2018 to 2021 Transportat ion Improvement Program, meets fiscal constraint requirements. The Transit Operators Roundtable has thoroughly vetted the transit projects in the 2040 Comprehensive Regional Plan as updated to determine that they meet fiscal constraint requirements.


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Criteria and Procedures for the Conformity Determination


The lnteragency Consultation Group Conformity Consultation Guidance establishes the criteria and procedures for the Conformity Determination. The Indiana SIP includes a duplicate of the original Federal transportation conformity rule. On August 15, 1997, after the establishment of the Indiana conformity rule as part of the SIP, the Federal conformity rule was amended to provide flexibility and streamlining. On June 1, 1998, IDEM issued a nonrule policy document that provides guidelines for conformity determination in light of Federal amendments. The nonrule policy document established the intent of IDEM to revise the SIP to mirror the new Federal amendments and to exercise its enforcement discretion to allow the features of the Federal amendments to be used.


The conformity determination for the 2040 Comprehensive Regional Plan as updated and amended and Fiscal Year 2018 to 2021 Transportation Improvement Program meets the requirements of 40 CFR 93.11O (latest planning assumptions), 93.111 (latest emissions model), and 93.112 (consultation) of the Federal conformity rule, for conformity determinations during all periods, and 40 CFR 93.113 (b and c) (transportation control measures), 93.118 (adherence to motor vehicle emissions budgets), and 93.119 (interim emissions reductions) of the conformity rule, for the transportation improvement program conformity determination with respect to Summer day VOC and NOx emissions.


Latest Planning Assumptions


The conformity determination is based on the latest planning assumptions. The transportation model uses the assumptions derived from estimates of current and future population, households, employment, travel and congestion most recently developed and approved by NIRPC. The estimates include 2010 population estimates from the 2010 Census, and employment estimates from the Indiana Department of Workforce Development ES-202 file. Trip generation rates, trip length, mode choice and other model parameters are based on a 1995 Household Travel Survey in Northwestern Indiana and compared to nationwide data. The 2007-2008 Household Travel Survey has not been incorporated into the trip generation rates for the transportation network in time for this Conformity Determination, although this is consistent with prior conformity determinations. The travel demand model was validated with respect to the year 2012 Highway Performance Monitoring System. The 2020, 2025, 2030, 2035 and 2040 population, household and employment forecasts were prepared in March 2011 and intermediate years updated to take into account the 2010 Census in January 2015 by NIRPC, using the latest available information. The 2045 population, household and employment forecasts were projected out from 2040 based on the 2035-2040 trend.


The transit operating policies (including fares and service levels) were changed for the previous conformity determination and are reflected in this conformity determination. Changes are assumed in existing transit fares within northwest Indiana over time. The model represents tolls on the Indiana Toll Road, the llliana Corridor, and Cline Avenue Bridge by links that correspond to tollbooths with a fixed travel time, based on the toll amount. The toll increases have been reflected in the transportation networks.


Planning Assumptions


1. Population forecasts have been prepared by NIRPC. For the development of the 2040 CRP, NIRPC has been allowed to use forecasts that are not constrained by the county control totals, which have tended to underestimate growth in the region. The population numbers show a large increase in Porter County, and a slight increase in LaPorte County and Lake County. The population, households and employment data are allocated to the traffic analysis zones and are used in the regional emissions analysis. The totals for the three-county area are included in Table 2.


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image


Table 2. Socioeconomic Totals


Year

Population

Households

Employment

2000

741,468

277,324

303,850

2010

771,815

292,477

277,584

2015

775,200

291,315

280,147

2020

827,438

337,211

302,828

2025

855,249

359,578

315,450

2030

883,060

381,944

328,071

2035

910,872

404,311

340,693

2040

938,683

426,678

353,315

2045

966,497

449,046

365,937


2. The Highway Performance Monitoring System (HPMS) data provided the basis for an analysis of the growth in Vehicle-Miles of Travel. Based on this data, the actual annual rate of growth of travel can be determined. For the three-county area, the rates range from -0.88% per year to 2.84% per year between 1993 and 2008 . Over this period, the annual rate of growth is 1.85% per year.


Table 3. Vehicle-Miles of Travel


Data from the Highway Performance MonitorinQ System (HPMS)

Year

VMT Estimate (HPMS)

Annual Rate of Growth

1993

18,829,591

1994

18,663,552

-0 .88%

1995

19,847,112

2.67%

1996

19,842,716

1.76%

1997

21,058,741

2.84%

1998

21,638,065

2.82%

1999

21,249,847

2.04%

2000

21,527,000

1.93%

2001

21,987,000

1.96%

2002

22,147,635

1.82%

2003

22,201,000

1.66%

2004

22,154,000

1.49%

2005

22,216,000

1.39%

2006

22,305,000

1.31%

2007

22,397,000

1.25%

2008

21,792,000

0.98%

2009

26,507,000

2.55%

2010

20,359,000

0.48%

2011

26,545,000

2.28%

2012

25,461,000

1.85%



3. Vehicle registration data have been received from the Indiana Bureau of Motor Vehicles . These data are split by vehicle type, and have an associated date of approximately December 31, 2014 . The


10


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Indiana Department of Environmental Management provided vehicle age information for cars and light trucks, from the application of a vehicle identification number (VIN) decoder as well as registrations by vehicle type directly from the Bureau of Motor Vehicles. This vehicle registration data have been used in MOVES, reflecting vehicle fleet age by vehicle type for smaller vehicles. For larger vehicle types, default data have been determined to be the best available fleet age information.


Horizon Year


The horizon year is 2040. An extra horizon year of 2045 was added by consultation with the ICG. The 2040 Comprehensive Regional Plan provides a policy-oriented distribution of population and households. This distribution is reflected in the project selection system for the plan, giving significant weight to projects in the revitalization areas in Gary, Hammond, East Chicago and Michigan City, as well as livable centers that provide for mixed land uses and greater transportation options.


The methods and assumptions for the transportation network model in the regional emissions analysis are included in The Transportation Model Documentation Report.


Latest Emissions Model


On March 2, 2010 the USEPA officially released the MOVES model, with a two year grace period. The MOVES model was updated in July 2014. INDOT has provided a utility that prepares the output of a TransCAD model for use with MOVES. INDOT has also run the MOVES model and provided emissions factors to all metropolitan areas in the state for use in conformity analysis. The MOVES2014a model has been used for this conformity analysis. The motor vehicle emissions budgets (MVEB) have been revised to use the MOVES emissions rates.


TCM Implementation


The 2040 Regional Transportation Plan and Fiscal Year 2018 to 2021 Transportation Improvement Program are not required to provide for timely implementation of TCMs from the SIP, since the SIP currently contains no TCMs.


Consistency with the Motor Vehicle Emission Budgets in the SIP


The regional emissions analysis has estimated emissions of VOC and NOx as ozone precursors. The regional emissions analysis includes estimates of emissions from the entire transportation system, including all regionally significant projects contained in the transportation plan and all other regionally significant highway and transit projects expected in the nonattainment area in the time frame of the transportation plan. Table 4 shows that regional emissions for the ozone precursors fall at or below the budgets in the State Implementation Plan for the 1997 Ozone Summer Day 8-hour standard (used in lieu of an applicable 2008 Ozone Summer Day 8-hour standard because Indiana has yet to adopt a State Implementation Plan for that standard).


The emissions analysis methodology meets the requirements of 40 CFR 93.122(b) of the Federal Conformity Rule, for conformity determinations based on estimates of regional transportation-related emissions completed after January 1, 1997.


Implementation of the Lake and Porter County projects in the regional transportation plan results in motor vehicle emissions that are at or below the levels of the applicable Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets, as shown in Table 4.


Emission Reductions in Areas Without Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets


11



The establishment of Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets that cover ozone and fine particles and their precursor emissions eliminates the requirements to demonstrate emissions reductions.


Procedures for Determining Regional Transportation-Related Emissions


The regional emissions analysis for the transportation projects includes calculations of vehicle emissions at the aggregate level for the entire transportation system, including all regionally significant expansion projects expected in the nonattainment area. The analysis includes FHWA/FTA-funded projects proposed in the transportation plan, all Indiana Toll Road projects and all other regionally significant projects which are disclosed to NIRPC. Vehicle miles traveled (VMT} from projects which are not regionally significant are estimated in accordance with reasonable professional practice, using the regional travel demand model and the procedure for projects that are regionally significant.


The regional emissions analysis does not include any TCM. The regional emissions analysis does not include emissions reduction credit from projects, programs, activities, or control measures which require a regulatory action in order to be implemented .


Ambient temperatures used for the regional emissions analysis are consistent with those used to estimate the emissions in 2002. All other factors, for example the fraction of travel in a hot stabilized engine mode, are consistently applied.


Reasonable methods have been used to estimate nonattainment area VMT on off-network roadways within the urban transportation planning area, and on roadways outside the urban transportation planning area. For 2020 , 2025 , 2030, 2035, 2040 and 2045, estimates of regional transportation-related emissions used to support the conformity determination have been made using the MOVES2014a post-processor updated with the latest vehicle registration data..


Land use, population, employment, and other network-based travel model assumptions have been documented based on the best available information . The land development and use in the 2040 Growth and Revitalization Vision adopted by NIRPC and underpinning the 2040 Regional Transportation Plan are consistent with the future transportation system alternatives for which emissions have been estimated. The distribution of employment and residences are reasonable.


A capacity-sensitive assignment methodology has been used, and emissions estimates are based on a methodology, which differentiates between peak and off peak link volumes and speeds, and uses speeds based on final assigned volumes, post-processed in the database. Zone-to-zone travel impedances used to distribute trips between origin and destination pairs are in reasonable agreement with the travel times that are estimated from final assigned traffic volumes, using a feedback procedure iterated five times. These times have also been used for modeling mode splits. The network-based travel model is reasonably sensitive to changes in the time(s), cost(s), and other factors affecting travel choices. Reasonable methods in accordance with good practice have been used to estimate traffic speeds and delays in a manner that is sensitive to the estimated volume of travel on each roadway segment represented in the network-based travel model. Highway Performance Monitoring System (HPMS) estimates of vehicle miles traveled (VMT} are considered the primary measure of VMT within the portion of the nonattainment area and for the functional classes of roadways included in the nonattainment area.


Regional Transportation-Related Emissions Results


Table 4 presents the results of the regional transportation emissions analysis for the 2040 Comprehensive Regional Plan as updated and amended, and the FY 2018 to 2021 Transportation Improvement Program including the projects as specified in Table 1. As seen in this table, the emissions are at or lower than the budgets for Ozone precursor emissions in 2020, 2025, 2030 , 2035, 2040, and 2045.


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Table 4. Regional Emissions Analysis Results Ozone Emissions in U.S. Tons per Day

Lake and Porter Counties

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

voe Budget

5.99

5.99

5.99

5.99

5.99

5.99

voe Emission

6.01

5.28

4.02

3.15

2.82

2.72

NOx Budget

16.69

16.69

16.69

16.69

16.69

16.69

NOx Emissions

14.93

10.20

7.79

6.60

6.63

6.37

VOe Emissions with Air Quality Public Education

5.97

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A


Conclusion


The Summer day on-road mobile source emissions of the precursors of ozone (VOC and NOx) in Lake and Porter Counties that result from the implementation of the projects in the 2040 Regional Transportation Plan as updated and the Fiscal Year 2018 to 2021 Transportation Improvement Program in the years 2025, 2030, 2035, 2040 and 2045 are at or less than the Motor Vehicle Emission Budgets established in the Maintenance Plan included in the U.S. EPA approved State Implementation Plan for Lake and Porter Counties. However, the VOC precursor emissions expected to result from the regionally significant, non-exempt projects in Lake in Porter Counties in 2020 are slightly above the Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets in the State Implementation Plan. Therefore, the lnteragency Consultation Group on Air Quality finds that it is first necessary to document an already approved and funded source of VOC emissions reductions in 2020 in order to show that at a reduction of at least 0.02 tons per summer day of VOC not already accounted for in the Transportation Network Model is reasonably expected to occur in 2020 in order to find the 2040 Regional Transportation Plan and Fiscal Year 2018 to 2021 Transportation Improvement Program to conform to the requirements of section 176(c) of the Clean Air Act Amendment and the related requirements of the Federal Transportation Conformity Rule (40 CFR Part 51 and 40 CFR Part 93) with respect to ozone. The lnteragency Consultation Group on Air Quality recommends using the already funded and implemented Air Quality Public Education program administered by NIRPC according to its Unified Planning Work Program, which shows a quantifiable reduction of 33.388 kg per summer day of VOC, which is equal to approximately 0.037 tons per summer day, enough to offset the 0.02 tons per summer day exceedance of the budget. Appendix A-1 shows the project highlighted in NIRPC's current Fiscal Year 2017-2018 Unified Planning Work Program with Congestion Mitigation Air Quality (CMAQ) funding, along with the application that shows the VOC emissions reductions from the project.


13



Appendix A-1: NIRPC Air Quality Public Education


In order to demonstrate Air Quality Conformity for the VOC ozone precursor in 2020, it is necessary to identify an already funded Congestion Mitigation Air Quality (CMAQ)-funded project. This practice is consistent with methodology taught in the National Transit lnstitute's Introduction to Transportation Conformity course and validated by the course's instructor, Sarah Siwek of Sarah J. Siwek & Associates . NIRPC staff searched all of the CMAQ-funded projects funded through NIRPC and found one project, an Air Quality Public Education/Outreach project, which would quantifiably reduce VOC emissions by more than 0.02 tons per summer day. As shown on the following tables, the Gas Can Exchange and Ride Sharing outreach components of this program would quantifiably reduce VOC emissions by 33.388 kg per summer day, which is approximately 0.037 tons per summer day. The NIRPC lnteragency Consultation Group (ICG) on Air Quality agreed on March 21, 2017 that this project would allow NIRPC to demonstrate Air Quality Conformity and successfully offset the Motor Vehicle Emissions Budget exceedance in 2020 for the VOC precursor of Ozone.


14


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15


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CM.A,Q REQl.)EST FORM (rev 3/2009)



I ·-·

Submission Date: I J.une 30, 201.6


I

lA. Project Applicant (.LPA, MPO, State, Other): NIRPC

I

-

18. If. other describe and list Sponsoring agency in #2:

- ... ·-·-·-·-

2. Sponsoring Ag!!ncy: I NIRPC


  1. FFY(s;) for which CMAQ Funds are to be used:

    I

    2017-2018


    I

  2. Year project Starts:

    FFY 2017


  3. Project Category: I Public Ed/Outreach


6. Project Description: I Air Quality Public education



  1. Estimated Total Funding Needed:


    900,000

    1 $

    Year: 2017 CMAQ $360,000 Local Match: $90,000 State: $

    Year: 2018 CMAQ $360,000 Local Match: $9o,ooo .Slate: $

    Year: CMAQ $ Local Match: $ State: $

    I I Estim(!ted total pf CMAQ funds needed: I sno,ooo I

  2. Air Quality Analysis (check appropriate Box)

Quantitative: XU Yes U No I U

, ......._

Qualitative: Yes XLJ No


s


16


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8A. REDUCTION IN OZONE PRECURSORS KILOGRAMS/DAY CMAQ$/KG REDUCED

,_

VOC's: 33.388 $0.03

, _ , ..

CO: 472.547 $0.02


NOx: 48.071 $20.52


8.B. REDUCATION IN PMu PRECURSORS KILOGRAMS/YEAR MAQ $/K\i REDUCED PM i.s: 0 Per Year No Reduction

NOx: 12,498.5 Per Year $2.93


NOTE: SUPPORTING DOCUMENTS OF A QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS OR AN EXPLANATION OF A QUALIITATIVE ANALYSIS MUST BE ATTACHED. A QUALITATIVE ANALYSIS MUST HAVE A RANGE OF EMISSION ESTIMATES.


9. Is the project or program a mandated TCM7 LJ Yes XLJ No 10. Is the project on the CAAA list of TCMs'? XlJYes LJ No 11. Is this project a "Public/Private..Partnership"? XLJ Yes LJ No


,,_



A complete description of the involvement/participation in the dev i p.ment of this project must

accompany the completed CMAQ Request Form .


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CMAQ Request Form lnrtructions Ifor pplicanl use), Une 1; Name of LPA, MPO. or State as applicable.

Line 2; Specific sponsoring agency und.er the appllcal)t listed in line 1aove. Line 3; FFY('s) funds are anticipated to used.

Line 4; Anticipated year project is to be started.


Line 5; Select from drop down list, If other describe. Urie 6; General project description

Line 7; Funding information, to include,


G


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