Transportation Conformity Determination Report


Between


The Northwestern Indiana 2050 Plan (NWI 2050 Plan) and


The Fiscal Year 2020 to 2024 Transportation Improvement Program (2020-2024 TIP)

and


The Indiana State Implementation Plan (SIP)


April 1, 2019


Northwestern Indiana Regional Planning Commission


www.nirpc.org


Table of Contents


Acknowledgements

1

Executive Summary

2

1.0 Background

3

1.1 Transportation Conformity Process

3

2.0 Metropolitan Transportation Plan (MTP)

4

2.1 Northwestern Indiana 2050 Plan (NWI 2050 Plan)

4

Table 2.1.1 Transportation Conformity-Required Projects Included in the NWI 2050 Plan

4

3.0 Transportation Improvement Program (TIP)

7

3.1 Fiscal Year 2020 to 2024 Transportation Improvement Program (2020-2024 TIP)

7

4.0 Transportation Conformity Determination: General Process

8

5.0 Requirements

9

5.1 Overview

9

5.2 Latest Planning Assumptions

9

Table 5.2.1 Demographic Baseline and Forecasts for Lake, Porter, and LaPorte Counties

9

Table 5.2.2 Growth in Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) in Lake, Porter, and LaPorte Counties

10

5.3 Latest Emissions Model

11

5.4 Consultation Requirements

11

5.5 Timely Implementation of Transportation Control Measures (TCMs)

12

5.6 Fiscal Constraint

12

5.7 Consistency with the Motor vehicle emissions budgets in the SIP

12

5.8 Regional Emissions Analysis Methodology

12

5.9 Regional Emissions Analysis Results

13

Table 5.9.1 Regional Emissions Analysis for Lake and Porter Counties - 2008 Ozone NAAQS

13

6.0 Conclusion

15

7.0 Appendices

16

7.1 Appendix A-1: Interagency Consultation Group Correspondence

16

7.2 Appendix A-2: Regional Significance Guidance

17

Acknowledgements


This Transportation Conformity Determination Report between the Northwestern Indiana 2050 Plan (NWI 2050 Plan), the Fiscal Year 2020 to 2024 Transportation Improvement Program (2020-2024 TIP) and the Indiana State Implementation Plan (SIP) was prepared by the Northwestern Indiana Regional Planning Commission (NIRPC). Individuals from the following agencies (hereafter collectively referred to as the Interagency Consultation Group on Air Quality or ICG) contributed their efforts towards the completion of the Transportation Conformity Determination Report. They include:


Executive Summary


As part of its transportation planning process as a Metropolitan Planning Organization, NIRPC at least every 4 years is required to develop both a Metropolitan Transportation Plan, a plan of the Northwestern Indiana Region’s priorities for the next few decades, as well as a Transportation Improvement Program, a listing of transportation projects that are consistent with the Metropolitan Transportation Plan. Because NIRPC administers these transportation planning requirements in at least one area designated by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) as nonattainment or maintenance for one or more criteria pollutants in the Clean Air Act (CAA), NIRPC is also subjected to Transportation Conformity requirements.


The Clean Air Act (CAA) section 176(c) (42 U.S.C. 7506(c)) requires that federally funded or approved highway and transit activities are consistent with (“conform to”) the purpose of the State Implementation Plan (SIP). Conformity to the purpose of the SIP means that transportation activities will not cause or contribute to new air quality violations, worsen existing violations, or delay timely attainment of the relevant NAAQS or any interim milestones (42 U.S.C. 7506(c)(1)). EPA’s transportation conformity rules establish the criteria and procedures for determining whether metropolitan transportation plans (MTPs), transportation improvement programs (TIPs), and federally supported highway and transit projects conform to the SIP (40 CFR Parts 51.390 and 93).


Of the six criteria pollutants regulated by the CAA (Ozone, Particulate Matter, Carbon Monoxide, Lead, Sulfur Dioxide, and Nitrogen Dioxide), only Ozone applies for this Transportation Conformity Determination Report because it is the only one of the pollutants for which EPA has designated portions of the NIRPC planning area (Lake, Porter, and LaPorte Counties) nonattainment or maintenance that the ICG has found to have transportation-related emissions contributing to the nonattainment or maintenance designation. The EPA has made area designations for Ozone for the 1997, 2008, and 2015 National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQSs). Transportation conformity must be demonstrated for the area designated under each NAAQS, unless an area for a newer designation is completely within the area from an older designation, in which case demonstrating conformity for the larger area is considered adequate for meeting the transportation conformity determination requirements. Lake and Porter Counties are designated as maintenance for the 1997 Ozone NAAQS and nonattainment for the 2008 Ozone NAAQS. Portions of northern Lake County are designated as nonattainment for the 2015 Ozone NAAQS, but since this area is completely within the area designated by the 2008 NAAQS, a transportation conformity determination for the 2008 Ozone NAAQS is adequate for the 2015 NAAQS. LaPorte County is designated maintenance for the 1997 Ozone NAAQS. Per the South Coast Air Quality Management District v. EPA decision and EPA’s Transportation Conformity Guidance for the South Coast II Court Decision, LaPorte County is subjected to less stringent transportation conformity determination requirements.


This transportation conformity determination was completed consistent with CAA requirements, existing associated regulations at 40 CFR Parts 51.390 and 93, and the South Coast II decision, according to EPA’s Transportation Conformity Guidance for the South Coast II Court Decision issued on November 29, 2018.

    1. Background


    2. Transportation Conformity Process


The concept of transportation conformity was introduced in the Clean Air Act (CAA) of 1970, which included a provision to ensure that transportation investments conform to a State implementation plan (SIP) for meeting the Federal air quality standards. Conformity requirements were made substantially more rigorous in the CAA Amendments of 1990. The transportation conformity regulations that detail implementation of the CAA requirements were first issued in November 1993, and have been amended several times. The regulations establish the criteria and procedures for transportation agencies to demonstrate that air pollutant emissions from MTPs, TIPs and projects are consistent with (“conform to”) the State’s air quality goals in the SIP. This document has been prepared for State and local officials who are involved in decision making on transportation investments.


Transportation conformity is required under CAA Section 176(c) to ensure that Federally-supported (though not necessarily federally funded) transportation activities are consistent with (“conform to”) the purpose of a State’s SIP. Transportation conformity establishes the framework for improving air quality to protect public health and the environment. Conformity to the purpose of the SIP means Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) and Federal Transit Administration (FTA) funding and approvals are given to highway and transit activities that will not cause new air quality violations, worsen existing air quality violations, or delay timely attainment of the relevant air quality standard, or any interim milestone.


Lake, Porter, and LaPorte Counties were designated as nonattainment for the 1997 Ozone NAAQS effective June 15, 2004 according to 69 FR 23857. On July 19, 2007, LaPorte County was reclassified to attainment with a maintenance plan (became a maintenance area) according to 72 FR 39574. On May 11, 2010, Lake and Porter Counties were reclassified to attainment with a maintenance plan (became a maintenance area) according to 75 FR 26113.


Lake and Porter Counties were designated as nonattainment for the 2008 Ozone NAAQS effective July 20, 2012 according to 77 FR 34221. EPA denied IDEM’s redesignation request for Lake and Porter Counties for attainment on January 9, 2015, so Lake and Porter Counties remain a nonattainment area for the 2008 Ozone NAAQS.


Portions of Lake County (Calumet, Hobart, North, Ross, and St. John Townships) were designated as nonattainment for the 2015 Ozone NAAQS effective August 3, 2018 according to 83 FR 25776. Since these townships are all completely within the 2008 Ozone NAAQS nonattainment area that spans all of Lake and Porter Counties, demonstrating transportation conformity for all of Lake and Porter Counties with respect to the 2008 Ozone NAAQS satisfies the requirement for demonstrating transportation conformity for the Lake County portion of the 2015 Ozone NAAQS.

    1. Metropolitan Transportation Plan (MTP)


      Metropolitan Planning Organizations (MPOs) operating fully or in part in NAAQS nonattainment or maintenance areas such as NIRPC are required to develop a metropolitan transportation plan (MTP) at least every 4 years that looks out to a horizon at least 20 years in the future according to 23 CFR Part 450.324.


    2. Northwestern Indiana 2050 Plan (NWI 2050 Plan)


The NWI 2050 Plan is scheduled to be adopted by the NIRPC Full Commission on May 16, 2019.1 This plan satisfies the requirements mentioned in section 2.0 above and upon adoption will be the MTP for the Northwestern Indiana Region that includes all of Lake, Porter, and LaPorte Counties in Indiana.


The NWI 2050 Plan includes the following regionally significant, non-exempt transportation projects completed since the 2017 baseline year subject to the transportation conformity requirements (see Appendix A-2 for Regional Significance Guidance):


Table 2.1.1 Transportation Conformity-Required Projects Included in NWI 2050 Plan


Projects Complete by 2020

Beginning Point

End Point

Sponsor

I 65 Added Travel Lanes

US 30

SR 2

INDOT

Cline Ave Bridge

Riley Rd Interchange

Michigan Ave Interchange

East Chicago

45th Ave Added Center Turn Lane

Chase St

Grant St

Lake County

101st Ave Added Travel Lanes

Georgia St

Mississippi St

Merrillville

Parrish Ave Added Center Turn Lane

Joliet St

US 231

St. John

Broadway Metro Express


Gary Metro Center

Methodist Southlake Hospital

Gary Public Transportation Corporation

US 20 Added Center Turn Lane

US 421


US 35/SR 212


INDOT

US 20 Interchange Modification at US- 35/SR 212


Meer Rd


US 35/SR 212

Interchange


INDOT

US 20 New

Interchange at SR 2

1,590 feet from US 20/SR 2 Interchange

1,590 feet from US- 20/SR-2 Interchange

INDOT


image

1 Available at: http://bit.ly/NWI2050Plan


Projects Complete by 2025

Beginning Point

End Point

Sponsor

US 41 Added Center Turn Lane

Standard Ave

US 231

INDOT

SR 49 Consecutive Intersection Improvements


Porter Ave


Gateway Blvd


INDOT

US 20 Added Center Turn Lane

SR 39

Fail Rd

INDOT

109th Ave Added Travel Lanes

SR 53

Iowa St

Crown Point

Gostlin St/Sheffield Ave/Chicago St Added Travel Lanes


Illinois State Line


US 41


Hammond

45th St Added Center Turn Lane

Whitcomb St

Chase St

Lake County

Mississippi St Added Travel Lanes

93rd Ave

101st Ave

Merrillville

45th St Grade Separation and Realignment

0.3 miles West of Calumet Ave


Southwood Dr


Munster

93rd Ave Added Center Turn Lane

White Oak Ave

US 41

St. John

109th Ave Added Center Turn Lane

Calumet Ave

US 41

St. John

Calumet Ave Added Center Turn Lane

101st Ave

109th Ave

St. John

Kennedy Ave Expansion

Oak St

US 30

Schererville

Vale Park Rd Extension

Winter Park Dr

Windsor Tr

Valparaiso

South Shore Line Double Track

Tennessee St

Michigan Blvd

NICTD

West Lake Corridor commuter rail service


Hammond Gateway Station


Main St - Munster/Dyer


NICTD


Projects Complete by 2030

Beginning Point

End Point

Sponsor

US 41 Added Center Turn Lane

US 231

SR 2

INDOT

Main St Extension

Burnham Ave (Illinois)

Columbia Ave/Sheffield Ave

Munster

Willowcreek Rd Extension

700 N

SR 130

Porter County

85th Ave Added Center Turn Lane

US 41

Parrish Ave

St. John

93rd Ave Added Travel Lanes

Calumet Ave

Cline Ave

St. John

109th Ave Added Travel Lanes

Calumet Ave

US 41

St. John

Blaine Ave Added Center Turn Lane

93rd Ave

101st Ave

St. John

Calumet Ave Added Travel Lanes

101st Ave

109th Ave

St. John

Cline Ave Added Travel Lanes

101st Ave

109th Ave

St. John

White Oak Ave Added Center Turn Lane

93rd Ave

101st Ave

St. John

Kennedy Ave Added Travel Lanes

Main St

Oak St

Schererville

Vale Park Rd Added Center Turn Lane

Calumet Ave

Silhavy Rd

Valparaiso


Projects Complete by 2040

Beginning Point

End Point

Sponsor

Division Rd Added Center Turn Lane

Sturdy Rd

375 E

Valparaiso

LaPorte County Eastern Bypass

SR 39

US 35

LaPorte County


Projects Complete by 2050

Beginning Point

End Point

Sponsor

Division Rd Added Center Turn Lane

SR 2

Sturdy Rd

Valparaiso/Porter County


    1. Transportation Improvement Program (TIP)


      Metropolitan Planning Organizations (MPOs) such as NIRPC are required to develop a Transportation Improvement Program (TIP), which is a listing of FHWA and FTA funded transportation projects, covering a period of at least 4 years and in cooperation with the state and public transit providers according to 23 CFR Part 450.326. MPOs in Indiana produce TIPs covering 5 years.


    2. Fiscal Year (FY) 2020 to 2024 Transportation Improvement Program (TIP)


The Fiscal Year 2020 to 2024 Transportation Improvement Program (2020-2024 TIP) is scheduled to be adopted by the NIRPC Full Commission on May 16, 2019.2 The 2020-2024 TIP satisfies the requirements mentioned in section 3.0 above and upon adoption will be the TIP for the Northwestern Indiana Region that includes all of Lake, Porter, and LaPorte Counties in Indiana.


The 2020-2024 TIP includes all federally funded projects in the State Fiscal Years 2020 to 2024 (July 1, 2019 through June 30, 2024) but does not include all of the projects listed in Table 2.1.1 above, namely those beyond the year 2024 or those that are not federally funded.



image

2 Available at http://bit.ly/20-24TIP

4.0 Transportation Conformity Determination: General Process


Generally, demonstrating transportation conformity between an MTP/TIP and a SIP means showing that regionally significant, non-exempt highway and transit projects will not cause new air quality violations, worsen existing air quality violations, or delay timely attainment of the relevant air quality standard, or any interim milestone. The State of Indiana developed a Regional Significance Guidance document included in Appendix A-2 that satisfies the 40 CFR Part 93.101 definition of regionally significant project. A non- exempt project is any project not included as an exempt project type in 40 CFR Part 93.126. Thus, demonstrating transportation conformity is required for any transportation project that meets the Regional Significance Guidance and that is not on the list of exempt projects.


In nonattainment or maintenance areas for transportation-related criteria pollutants, demonstrating transportation conformity is required for all newly adopted MTPs and TIPs, and for any amendments to MTPs or TIPs that include regionally significant, non-exempt projects. Since the NWI 2050 Plan is a newly adopted MTP and the 2020-2024 TIP is a newly adopted TIP, it is necessary to demonstrate transportation conformity to the SIP with respect to the applicable criteria pollutants and their associated precursors. In this case the only applicable criteria pollutant is Ozone, which includes Nitrous Oxides (NOx) and Volatile Organic Compounds (VOC) as precursors.

    1. Requirements


    2. Overview


      The transportation conformity regulation at 40 CFR 93.109 sets forth the criteria and procedures for demonstrating transportation conformity. The transportation conformity criteria for MTPs and TIPs include: latest planning assumptions (93.110), latest emissions model (93.111), consultation (93.112), transportation control measures (93.113(b) and (c), fiscal constraint, consistency with motor vehicle emissions budgets in the SIP, and regional emissions analysis or interim emissions test (93.118 and/or 93.119).


      For the 1997 Ozone NAAQS areas that are not designated nonattainment or maintenance for either the 2008 Ozone NAAQS or 2015 Ozone NAAQS (i.e. LaPorte County), transportation conformity can be demonstrated with only the latest planning assumptions, consultation, transportation control measures, and fiscal constraint requirements per 40 CFR 93.109(c) and the EPA Transportation Conformity Guidance for the South Coast II Court Decision.3 Thus, all of the additional requirements in the previous paragraph only are applied to demonstrating transportation conformity with respect to Lake and Porter Counties in this Transportation Conformity Determination Report.


    3. Latest Planning Assumptions


Use of the latest planning assumptions in demonstrating transportation conformity is required per 40 CFR

93.110 of the conformity rule. Use of the latest planning assumptions ensures that the underlying assumptions and data that are inputted into the regional emissions analysis accurately reflect the planning assumptions of the region demonstrating transportation conformity. As part of the NWI 2050 Plan and FY 2020 to 2024 TIP development, the Northwestern Indiana Region developed demographic forecasts for population and employment growth as shown on Table 5.2.1.


Table 5.2.1 Demographic Baseline and Forecasts for Lake, Porter, and LaPorte Counties

Year

Population

Households

Employment

2017

766,924

291,750

286,970

2020

773,689

294,313

292,121

2025

784,974

298,567

300,688

2030

796,251

302,838

309,281

2040

818,813

311,378

326,436

2050

841,382

319,903

343,604


Population forecasts are based on the baseline 2017 year as found in the US Census Bureau’s American Community Survey, 2013-2017 Estimates Table B01003. The 2050 horizon year population forecast is based on an average of 5 different sources that have already conducted population forecasts for the NWI Region: INDOT Statewide Travel Demand Model, INDOT REMI PI+ 2.0 Model, Woods & Poole Economics, Inc., Louis Berger Group (for the Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning), and the Indiana Business Research Center.4 The interim years between the 2017 baseline year and the 2050 horizon


image

3 Available from https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2018-11/documents/420b18050.pdf

4 INDOT Statewide Travel Demand Model, INDOT REMI PI+ 2.0 Model, and Woods & Poole Economics, Inc. population forecasts were emailed to NIRPC by INDOT on October 11, 2017 and have privacy restrictions- these forecasts are technically for a 2045 horizon year that is extrapolated out to 2050 based on a linear trend model of fit; Louis Berger Group forecasts are available at https://datahub.cmap.illinois.gov/dataset/89f66569-

year are extrapolated from a simple linear trend model of fit. Household forecasts are based on the baseline 2017 year as found in the US Census Bureau’s American Community Survey, 2013-2017 Estimates Table S1101. All other years are based on the number of persons per household for each county found by dividing the county’s population by its number of households. Employment forecasts are based on the baseline 2017 year as found in the US Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) State and County Wages series annual average employment. The 2050 horizon year employment forecast is based on an average of 4 different sources that have already conducted employment forecasts for the NWI Region: INDOT Statewide Travel Demand Model, INDOT REMI PI+ 2.0 Model, Woods & Poole Economics, Inc., and Louis Berger Group (for the Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning).5 The interim years between the 2017 baseline year and the 2050 horizon year are extrapolated from a simple linear trend model of fit.


The Highway Performance Monitoring System (HPMS) data provides the basis or an analysis of the growth in Vehicle-Miles of Travel as shown on Table 5.2.2.


image

5f51-4c14-8b02-5ecc1ca00909/resource/a812de2f-d465-47f2-87df- 0427e81da2cf/download/CMAPSocioeconomicForecastFinal-Report04Nov2016.pdf; Indiana Business Research Center forecasts available at http://www.stats.indiana.edu/pop_proj/

5 INDOT Statewide Travel Demand Model, INDOT REMI PI+ 2.0 Model, and Woods & Poole Economics, Inc. forecasts were emailed to NIRPC by INDOT on October 11, 2017 and have privacy restrictions- these forecasts are technically for a 2045 horizon year that is extrapolated out to 2050 based on a linear trend model of fit; Louis Berger Group forecasts are available at https://datahub.cmap.illinois.gov/dataset/89f66569-5f51- 4c14-8b02-5ecc1ca00909/resource/a812de2f-d465-47f2-87df- 0427e81da2cf/download/CMAPSocioeconomicForecastFinal-Report04Nov2016.pdf


Table 5.2.2 Growth in Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) in Lake, Porter, and LaPorte Counties

Year

Daily VMT Estimate (HPMS)

Annual Rate of Growth

1992

17,722,061

1993

18,160,891

2.48%

1994

18,663,552

2.77%

1995

19,847,112

6.34%

1996

19,842,716

-0.02%

1997

21,058,741

6.13%

1998

21,638,065

2.75%

1999

21,249,847

-1.79%

2000

21,527,000

1.33%

2001

21,987,000

2.11%

2002

22,147,635

0.73%

2003

22,201,000

0.24%

2004

22,154,000

-0.21%

2005

22,216,000

0.28%

2006

22,305,000

0.40%

2007

22,397,000

13.95%

2008

21,792,000

-13.96%

2009

26,507,120

21.21%

2010

20,359,000

-23.19%

2011

26,545,000

30.38%

2012

25,461,000

-4.08%

2013

26,066,000

2.37%

2014

26,797,850

2.81%

2015

29,805,800

11.22%

2016

30,858,000

3.53%

2017

31,044,000

0.60%


Based on this data, the actual annual rate of growth of travel can be determined. For the three-county area as shown in Table 5.2.2, the rates range from -23.19% to 30.38% between 1992 and 2017. Over this period, the annual rate of daily VMT growth is 2.27%.


Vehicle registration data have been received from the Indiana Bureau of Motor Vehicles. These data are split by vehicle type, and have an associated date of approximately December 31, 2014. The Indiana Department of Environmental Management provided vehicle age information for cars and light trucks, from the application of a vehicle identification number (VIN) decoder as well as registrations by vehicle type directly from the Bureau of Motor Vehicles. This vehicle registration data have been used in MOVES, reflecting vehicle fleet age by vehicle type for smaller vehicles. For larger vehicle types, default data have been determined to be the best available fleet age information.


The methods and assumptions for the transportation network model in the regional emissions analysis are included in the NIRPC Travel Demand Model Documentation Report.6


image

6 Available at https://www.nirpc.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/NIRPC-Travel-Demand-Model.pdf


    1. Latest Emissions Model


      For demonstrating transportation conformity for the Lake and Porter Counties 2008 Ozone NAAQS, the MOVES2014a model has been used for this Transportation Conformity Determination Report. Although technically the MOVES2014b is the latest emissions model, EPA allows MOVES2014a to satisfy the latest emissions model requirements for transportation conformity purposes.7 The latest emissions model requirement does not apply to demonstrating transportation conformity for the 1997 Ozone NAAQS with respect to LaPorte County as mentioned in the EPA Transportation Conformity Guidance for the South Coast II Court Decision. The Motor Vehicles Emissions Budgets (MVEB) for 2008 Ozone NAAQS with respect to Lake and Porter Counties are based on the INDOT Air Quality Post-Processor (AQPP), which combines inputs from the NIRPC Travel Demand Model and MOVES2014a.


    2. Consultation Requirements


      The consultation requirements in 40 CFR 93.112 were addressed both for interagency consultation and public consultation.


      Interagency consultation was conducted with NIRPC, INDOT, IDEM, FHWA, FTA, and EPA. NIRPC sent an email to representatives from each of these agencies with a draft copy of this Transportation Conformity Determination Report on March 22, 2019. Representatives from each of these agencies offered feedback and recommended edits as appropriate and during a teleconference call on March 29, 2019, and these are reflected in this Transportation Conformity Determination Report. Interagency consultation was conducted consistent with the Indiana Conformity SIP. See section 7.1 for details of the interagency consultation correspondence.


      Public consultation was conducted consistent with planning rule requirements in 23 CFR 450. NIRPC followed its 2014 Public Participation Plan.8 The Transportation Conformity Determination Report was made available to public comment on the NIRPC website from April 1, 2019 to April 30, 2019, fulfilling the 30-day public comment period that the 2014 Public Participation Requires for Conformity Determinations.


    3. Timely Implementation of TCMs


      The Indiana SIP with respect to Lake, Porter, and LaPorte Counties does not include any TCMs.


    4. Fiscal Constraint


      Transportation conformity requirements in 40 CFR 93.108 state that transportation plans and TIPs must be fiscally constrained consistent with DOT’s metropolitan planning regulations at 23 CFR part 450. The NWI 2050 Plan and 2020-2024 TIP are fiscally constrained, as demonstrated in the Action Plan section of the NWI 2050 Plan9 and section Fiscal Constraint section of the 2020-2024 TIP.10


      image

      7 See https://www.epa.gov/moves/latest-version-motor-vehicle-emission-simulator-moves

      8 Available at https://nirpc.org/media/48081/nirpc_2014_ppp_final_adopted_12.11.2014.pdf

      9 Available at http://bit.ly/NWI2050Plan

      10 Available at http://bit.ly/20-24TIP


    5. Consistency with the Motor vehicle emissions budgets in the SIP


      This Transportation Conformity Determination Report is prepared consistent with the applicable EPA-approved Motor vehicle emissions budgets (MVEB) for the Ozone precursors of NOx and VOC. The MVEB are based on prior consultation between members of the Interagency Consultation Group on Air Quality (see Acknowledgments section) and are formulated using the latest emissions model and the NIRPC Travel Demand Model. Table 5.9.1 shows the MVEB for the applicable analysis years in the Regional Emissions Analysis. The consistency with the Motor vehicle emissions budgets requirement does not apply to demonstrating transportation conformity for the 1997 Ozone NAAQS with respect to LaPorte County as mentioned in the EPA Transportation Conformity Guidance for the South Coast II Court Decision.


    6. Regional Emissions Analysis Methodology


      The regional emissions analysis applicable to Lake and Porter Counties has estimated emissions of VOC and NOX as ozone precursors. The regional emissions analysis includes estimates of emissions from the entire transportation system, including all regionally significant, non-exempt projects contained in the NWI 2050 Plan (see Table 2.1.1) and all other regionally significant, non-exempt highway and transit projects expected in the nonattainment area in the time frame of the transportation plan. Table 5.9.1 shows that regional emissions for the ozone precursors fall at or below the budgets in the State Implementation Plan for the 2008 Ozone NAAQS with respect to Lake and Porter Counties.


      The emissions analysis methodology meets the requirements of 40 CFR 93.122(b) of the Transportation Conformity Rule, for transportation conformity determinations based on estimates of regional transportation- related emissions completed after January 1, 1997.


      Implementation of the Lake and Porter County projects in the NWI 2050 Plan and 2020-2024 TIP results in motor vehicle emissions that are at or below the levels of the applicable Motor vehicle emissions budgets, as shown in Table 5.9.1.


      The regional emissions analysis for the transportation projects includes calculations of vehicle emissions at the aggregate level for the entire transportation system, including all regionally significant, non-exempt projects expected in the nonattainment area. The analysis includes FHWA/FTA-funded projects proposed in the NWI 2050 Plan, all Indiana Toll Road projects and all other regionally significant, non-exempt projects which are disclosed to NIRPC (see Table 2.1.1 for the complete list). Vehicle miles traveled (VMT) from projects which are not regionally significant and non-exempt are estimated in accordance with reasonable professional practice, using the NIRPC Travel Demand Model.


      The regional emissions analysis does not include any TCM. The regional emissions analysis does not include emissions reduction credit from projects, programs, activities, or control measures which require a regulatory action in order to be implemented.


      Ambient temperatures used for the regional emissions analysis are consistent with those used to estimate the emissions in 2017. All other factors, for example the fraction of travel in a hot stabilized engine mode, are consistently applied.


      Reasonable methods have been used to estimate nonattainment area VMT on off-network roadways within the urban transportation planning area, and on roadways outside the urban transportation planning area. For 2017, 2020, 2025, 2030, 2040, and 2050, estimates of regional transportation-related emissions used to support the conformity determination have been made using the MOVES2014a post-processor updated with the latest vehicle registration data. Regional transportation-related emissions estimates are included for 2011

      since 2011 appears in the Lake and Porter Counties 2008 Ozone NAAQS attainment demonstration.


      Land use, population, employment, and other network-based travel model assumptions have been documented based on the best available information (see Section 5.3). The distribution of population, households, and employment is based on prior 5-year moving averages of those trends in each of the 380 Travel Analysis Zones (TAZs) in Lake and Porter Counties and is a reasonable state of the practice.


      A capacity-sensitive assignment methodology has been used, and emissions estimates are based on a methodology, which differentiates between peak and off-peak link volumes and speeds, and uses speeds based on final assigned volumes, post-processed in the database. TAZ-to-TAZ travel impedances used to distribute trips between origin and destination pairs are in reasonable agreement with the travel times that are estimated from final assigned traffic volumes, using a feedback procedure iterated five times. These times have also been used for modeling mode splits. The network-based travel model is reasonably sensitive to changes in the time(s), cost(s), and other factors affecting travel choices. Reasonable methods in accordance with good practice have been used to estimate traffic speeds and delays in a manner that is sensitive to the estimated volume of travel on each roadway segment represented in the network-based travel model. Highway Performance Monitoring System (HPMS) estimates of vehicle miles traveled (VMT) are considered the primary measure of VMT within the portion of the nonattainment area and for the functional classes of roadways included in the nonattainment area.


      The regional emissions analysis requirement does not apply to demonstrating transportation conformity for the 1997 Ozone NAAQS with respect to LaPorte County as mentioned in the EPA Transportation Conformity Guidance for the South Coast II Court Decision.


    7. Regional Emissions Analysis Results


Table 5.9.1 shows the Regional Emissions Analysis Results for demonstrating transportation conformity between the NWI 2050 Plan and FY 2020 to 2024 TIP and the Indiana SIP for the 2008 Ozone NAAQS with respect to Lake and Porter Counties.


Table 5.9.1 Regional Emissions Analysis for Lake and Porter Counties - 2008 Ozone NAAQS

Year:

2011

2017

2020

2025

2030

2040

2050

NOx Budget

28.41

16.68

16.68

16.68

16.68

16.68

16.68

NOx Emissions

24.70

12.85

13.01

8.53

6.62

5.23

5.34

VOC Budget

11.02

6.85

6.85

6.85

6.85

6.85

6.85

VOC Emission

9.58

6.07

6.18

4.91

3.77

2.59

2.57


As shown in Table 5.9.1, baseline and forecasted emissions for the Ozone precursors of NOx and VOC are at or below the motor vehicle emissions budgets (MVEBs) in the Indiana SIP. Therefore, transportation conformity is demonstrated for the NWI 2050 Plan and 2020-2024 TIP for the 2008 Ozone NAAQS with respect to Lake and Porter Counties. Per the EPA Transportation Conformity Guidance for the South Coast II Court Decision, transportation conformity is demonstrated for the NWI 2050 Plan and 2020-2024 TIP for the 1997 Ozone NAAQS with respect to LaPorte County without a regional emissions analysis. Only the latest planning assumptions, consultation, transportation control measures, and fiscal constraint are required to demonstrate transportation conformity with respect to LaPorte County.

6.0 Conclusion


The transportation conformity determination process completed for the Northwestern Indiana 2050 Plan (NWI 2050 Plan) and the Fiscal Year 2020 to 2024 Transportation Improvement Program (2020-2024 TIP) demonstrates that these planning documents meet the Clean Air Act and Transportation Conformity Rule requirements for the applicable National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS).

    1. Appendices


    2. Appendix A-1: Interagency Consultation Group Correspondence


      NIRPC staff emailed members of the Interagency Consultation Group on Air Quality, comprised of NIRPC, INDOT, IDEM, FHWA, FTA, and EPA, a draft of this Transportation Conformity Determination Report on March 22, 2019.


      On March 26, 2019, Anthony Maietta of EPA, and Shawn Seals of IDEM, notified Scott Weber of NIRPC, that the motor vehicle emissions budgets developed for the 2008 Ozone NAAQS with respect to Lake and Porter Counties supersede the Motor vehicle emissions budgets developed for the 1997 Ozone NAAQS with respect to Lake and Porter Counties. Anthony Maeitta and Shawn Seals also notified Scott Weber that demonstrating Transportation Conformity to the 2008 Ozone NAAQS with respect to all of Lake and Porter Counties fulfills the requirement to demonstrate Transportation Conformity to the 2015 Ozone NAAQS with respect to 5 townships in Lake County since those townships are completely within the Lake and Porter Counties geography for the 2008 Ozone NAAQS and since there are no motor vehicle emissions budgets yet for the 2015 Ozone NAAQS geography.


      On March 29, 2019, there was an Interagency Consultation Group on Air Quality teleconference call. Scott Weber and Trey Wadsworth of NIRPC, Frank Baukert and Stephanie Belch of INDOT, Shawn Seals of IDEM, Joyce Newland of FHWA, and Anthony Maietta of EPA participated. All parties agreed with the project list in Table 2.1.1 upon hearing NIRPC’s explanation that it included all of the draft STIP INDOT projects as well as Local Public Agency projects that NIRPC staff had heard about from reaching out to the Employees in Responsible Charge (ERCs). All parties agreed with the draft report in terms of the Requirements in Section 5. Scott Weber thanked Anthony Maeitta and Shawn Seals for their correspondence on March 26, 2019 in regards to clarifying which motor vehicle emissions budgets apply to this transportation conformity determination. Joyce Newland asked that all members of the ICG receive the link to the Federal Register and the motor vehicle emissions budgets for Lake and Porter Counties for the 2008 Ozone NAAQS. Shawn Seals responded that he would email the link out to the members of the ICG. Scott Weber thanked Frank Baukert for providing the updated INDOT HPMS Adjustment Fractions and asked that since he had only recently received them from INDOT and did not yet have all of the Air Quality Modeling results using them, that the ICG grant him additional time to revise the emissions in Table 5.9.1 using these latest HPMS Adjustment Fractions. The ICG agreed with Scott Weber’s request given information from Scott that when he modeled the 2020 emissions based on the updated HPMS Adjustment Fractions, the emissions only changed by a few hundredths of a ton per summer day. The ICG agreed with NIRPC’s planned public comment period and upcoming adoption schedule for this transportation conformity determination report as well as the NWI 2050 Plan and 2020-2024 TIP.


      NIRPC staff posted this Transportation Conformity Determination Report document to the NIRPC website for public comment on April 1, 2019 through April 30, 2019.

    3. Appendix A-2: Regional Significance Guidance

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